Oh My Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani turns the Blue Jays, then the Dodgers into World Series favorites; Chiefs panic time?
Shohei Ohtani’s getting paid. Eventually.
And so are sportsbooks after the Los Angeles Dodgers’ mega-move for the star hitter/starting pitcher quaked betting lines.
Ohtani pulled it off twice, actually, as a bogus report of his bogus visit to Toronto sent a flood of World Series futures bet money onto the Blue Jays’ pile.
The merits of spending $700* million on a two-way player generational star after his second Tommy John surgery are debatable — two-time MVP or not.
Some seem outraged because he’s simply getting it, or getting it from a team they don’t support, or that he’s deferring the vast majority of it to his post-career. (How will he live on $2 million a year!? Endorsements, that’s how, but we’re getting distracted.)
DraftKings Sportsbook Director Johnny Avello relayed to Gaming Today how his weekend was Ohtani-ed.
“It was a frenzy. Here we are thinking it's gonna be Toronto. We had Toronto co-favorites [to win the World Series] with Atlanta at about 7-1, thinking that's where he was gonna sign.
“The Dodgers were definitely higher there around 9-1, I believe.
“Then he ends up signing with the Dodgers. So now we gotta make a quick move and the Dodgers become the favorite at +475. Toronto goes back to 18-1.
“These are the type of things you really gotta stay on top of. I thought when I first saw the story that Toronto was for sure where he was going.
“But who knows, right? I mean, you just never know it until the papers are signed.”
Read More: Dan Holmes dives deep into the ramifications
Ohtani’s Sports Betting Impact (via BetMGM):
Line movement (Open to Current)
Dodgers: +800 to +550
Yankees: +1600 to +950
Mets: +2500 to +2200
Highest Ticket %
Yankees: 11.4%
Dodgers: 11.0%
Blue Jays: 10.1%
Highest Handle %
Yankees: 18.1%
Dodgers: 16.0%
Blue Jays: 12.4%
Biggest Liability
Yankees
Blue Jays
Cubs
From Caesars:
When the deal was announced on Saturday, the Dodgers went from +800 to +550 to win the World Series, making them the favorites (Atlanta was the previous favorite at +750).
Blue Jays went from 18/1 to 10/1 when the plane ride rumor was out, then went back to 18/1 after it was announced he was going to the Dodgers.
For the NL West, the Dodgers moved from -180 to -300.
The Dodgers’ win total moved from 95 to 97.5.
From DraftKings:
An Oh-timeline:
Blue Jays World Series Futures
Open: +1700
Thursday: +1600
Friday: +1200
Current: +1800
Dodgers World Series Futures
Open: +700
Thursday: +700
Friday: +700
Current: +475
Blue Jays American League Futures
Open: +800
Thursday: +800
Friday: +600
Current: +800
Dodgers National League Futures
Open: +390
Thursday: +400
Friday: +400
Current: +270
From Fanatics:
Before the trade, the Dodgers were +750 in the World Series market. After the trade, the Dodgers moved to +500.
From FanDuel:
The Blue Jays’ odds of winning the World Series were at +1400 before the Ohtani rumors. Once the rumors started flying (although he didn’t) there was a “slight bump in betting, and odds dropped to +1000 at one point.”
Toronto odds moved back to +1600 once the Dodgers signing broke.
The Dodgers are the favorites at FanDuel to win the World Series at +500, followed by the Braves at +650.
The Dodgers have the second-highest share of handle at 18% to win the World Series, trailing only the Yankees (29%).
(Brant James illustration/AP Photo)
Where’s My Sure Thing, Chiefs? (Back up Kadarius)
Avello on the varnish falling (or not) off the Super Bowl champion Chiefs at 8-5.
“Well, they're always strong every year. Their power rating hasn't been dropped much. And the reason for that is that they're not scoring as much as they have in the past, but they're losing some really close games.
“It's not like they're getting blown out. They're losing games that they could have won.
“So their power rating is still pretty high. For instance, this week they're at New England and New England is struggling.
“But if the Chiefs were really struggling, they might be only seven in this game.
“We opened this game at 10. We're down to 9 1/2. This game might be 10 by game time. It's not like the bettors have given up on them and they're still the favorite in most games that they play.”
(Brant James illustration/AP Photo)
Closing the Book
Not that it always has to be about sports betting … but it sort of does here:
If Monumental Sports & Entertainment consummates a tentative deal to move the Washington Capitals and Wizards to a new arena across the Potomac River to Alexandria, Va., there will be just one in-venue retail sportsbook left in North America: FanDuel’s at Footprint Center in Phoenix.
Caesars currently has a retail shop in Capital One Arena.
Not that it’s come up — as the last “major” league team based in Virginia was the Virginia Squires of the American Basketball Association (circa 1970-76) — but state law wouldn’t allow for Caesars to move with owner Ted Leonsis’ teams. Retail sportsbooks are only allowed in Virginia casinos.
Pick6 vs. Progressive Parlay, Explained
The deal on these DraftKings’ options
DraftKings recently announced the launch of two new products in its portfolio: Pick6 and Progressive Parlays. It’s important not to confuse the two, as they are vastly different offerings meant to diversify players’ experiences on the DraftKings platform.
DraftKings has announced the launch of Pick6 on the heels of the ongoing controversy surrounding pick’em and fantasy contests, with regulators coming down heavily on operators who design the games in such a way players are contesting against the house. Pick6 follows a peer-to-peer format where one needs to predict whether a certain player will exceed or fall short of a predetermined statistic.
Hard Rock: Get prop DFS out of Florida
This is no surprise considering the Seminole Tribe of Florida — the owners of Hard Rock Bet — have a monopoly on sports betting there. Traditional team-style? Not a problem.
But Hard Rock International Chairman Jim Allen told me on Thursday at the launch of craps, roulette, and retail sports betting at Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino:
“If DraftKings and FanDuel continue to do what they’re doing, we’re fine with that. So that’s category one. We have no issue with that whatsoever.
“But certainly what Betr and Underdog and others like them are doing is flat-out illegal. There is no way around it. Eleven other states have declared exactly what they’re doing as illegal and we support the Florida Gaming Commission and the Attorney General in pursuing that.”
Allen might want a word with a Florida politician attempting to legalize what Betr, Underdog, and PrizePicks are doing in Florida despite being ordered to stop.
Here’s my extended interview with Allen.
One last thing: That’s Jim Allen in the middle and Ric Flair on the right at last week's ceremony. Who’s the guy on the left? (I seriously don’t know).
FanDuel Coming to North Carolina
This is not a surprise. But that’s the third national brand gaining access the only way you can in the state: a partnership with a professional league (like NASCAR) or venue (like Charlotte Motor Speedway).
The NC scoreboard so far:
bet365: Charlotte Hornets
ESPN BET: Quail Hollow Club
FanDuel: PGA TOUR
Left in the owners’ green room are two of the most vociferous proponents of legal sports betting as a revenue stream: the Panthers’ David Tepper and Hurricanes’ Tom Dundon.
Legal mobile sports betting in North Carolina is expected to launch this spring.
Yer up, Vermont
Meanwhile, online sports betting is slated to debut on Jan. 11 in the home of Aaron Lewis. Vermonters can all agree, it’s been a while.
We have everything you need to track the legal launch of sports betting in Vermont.
Odds ….
… and ends
ESPN BET sopped up 6% of the Maryland sports betting market in November.
Wyoming. Montana. Alaska. Those are the only states where we don’t have a subscriber. I will buy you a beer (a good one) if you fill in our map.
By Brant James, Gaming Today Senior Writer