NFL Playoff Picture is Extremely Unclear Entering Week 18
Twenty NFL teams make a final pylon leap for the playoffs and seeding, but has the Super Bowl logo already spoken?
We’re three or four horrendous officiating decisions away from deciding the NFL playoff bracket. (Editor’s note: That 2-point debacle is on you, Dan Campbell).
Sixty-four playoff scenarios just in the NFC. Thirty-two in the AFC.
Futures bets are in flux. Super Bowl wagers are in the churn.
Bills in as AFC East champ?
Bills out as AFC flotsam?
Bucs in as AFC South champs or playing golf on Monday?
Where will the Eagles dare plummet?
Packers.
Seahawks.
Colts.
Texans.
Sports.
Nuggets from NFL Communications with direct impact on bettors:
Twenty teams remain in Super Bowl contention — tied for the most (2006) with one week remaining since a record 22 were still viable at this point in 1982.
Five playoff berths remain unclaimed, the most entering the final week since there were seven in 2020.
Four division titles are still undecided, which is the most entering a season’s final week since there were also four in 2014.
This year, 109 NFL games have been decided by six or fewer points. Over a full season, only one prior campaign has had more, 2022, when 122 games were separated by no more than six points.
Quoth a FanDuel trader:
“With some questionable motivation spots this week, the games with playoff implications stand out as by far our most bet events. The Bills vs. Dolphins showdown for the division is at the top of the list. The public does not believe in Miami to bounce back after their blowout loss to the Ravens last week as we have seen a substantially more amount of the money coming in on the Bills.”
“The other win-and-in game: the Texans vs. the Colts has seen significant money come in on the Texans. The trading team also needs the game to go Under as the total has been getting bet up all week with significant money coming in on the Over.”
“In terms of player props, we expect to see significant money come in on players with contractive incentives this week. A potentially popular one could be DeAndre Hopkins, who needs to have a big game to trigger around $1.75 million in incentive-based bonuses.”
(Brant James illustration/AP Photos)
Logo or Loco?
In need of more conspiracy theories and alleged skullduggery in its collective life, the NFL social medi-ocracy recently seized upon a post by NFL Memes from November that highlighted the fact that the last two Super Bowl logos featured colors of the eventual participants.
Keep in mind these logos are unveiled a year before the game is played.
And good job, NFL Memes, of offering the Ravens and 49ers before they locked up the top seeds in their conferences.
If you consider this logo dynamic a trend and actionable information, a Ravens-49ers Super Bowl matchup is currently +340 at DraftKings. Welcome to modern sports betting. We’re handicapping art.
And seeing how we are, what if we’re being too obvious in our assessment of the LVIII logo?
Other red-purple Super Bowl permutations:
Ravens-Buccaneers: +12000
Ravens-Falcons: +50000
Chiefs-Vikings: +250000
Vikings-Bills: +250000
Super Bowl LIX (you can already hear the jokes now) will be held in New Orleans. I’m predicting Mardi Gras colors. That’s purple, yellow, and green, setting up a Ravens’ repeat attempt and an unlikely Packers resurgence, which doesn’t matter because this is nonsense. … Right?
January Madness, Anyone?
It’s No. 2 Washington vs. No. 1 Michigan on Monday for the national championship after a pair of scintillating semifinal games.
A four-team College Football Playoff is great. But the 12-school version set to debut next year will still be greater. With America’s love for football being what it is, can January Madness© (where’s my copyright guy?) be bigger than the NCAA men’s tourney, the nation’s most lucrative betting event?
We asked DraftKings Director of Race and Sportsbook Johnny Avello:
Q: Knowing March Madness will still have vastly more games, can the interest in the CFP push its handle close to the men’s tourney?
JA: I don't think so if you're talking about handle. The tournament is the biggest handle of any event, including the Super Bowl, because it takes place over the course of three weeks, whereas the Super Bowl is one game.
Even though we're expanding the college football playoff for more games, it's just not going to reach those types of heights. College basketball is a separate animal. It really is. It’s continuing to grow.
With that being said, I'm really looking forward to expanding this playoff. I think it becomes more fair now. I think you get four teams with a bye, the top four teams. We get another eight teams in there. I think it's a great format.
Adds the FanDuel trader:
“A Michigan win would be big for the trading team as the public has been all over Washington after their upset win over Texas. We have seen a significant disparity in bets on both the moneyline and spread in favor of Washington.”
NOTE: The Playbook will publish a national title game supplemental on Monday, Jan. 8.
Seven up in NC
The sportsbooks approved for a 2024 launch in North Carolina include:
Delaware! Not First This Time, but Not Last
Delaware was the first state post-PASPA to launch a retail sports betting market — June 5, 2018 — beating New Jersey, which is a frequent wrong answer at Gambling Trivia Night.
Almost six years later, Delaware (all three counties!) finally has mobile sports betting under the BetRivers banner.
On Wednesday, the Delaware Lottery announced a full state-wide launch (in all three counties!) and the relaunch of its three online casinos (Delaware Park, Bally’s Dover Casino, and Harrington Raceway & Casino), “ushering in a new era of online gaming in the First State.”
Delaware, which apparently really likes to be proactive with constitutions and gambling, was the first U.S. state to successfully launch intrastate iGaming in 2013, including online slots, blackjack, and video poker.
At a gas station outside Paducah, with an anytime TD scorer bet on Isiah Pacheco, Kentucky became the 21st state where I’ve made a legal sports bet.
Odds …
… and Ends
The most popular bets of 2023 at bet365
Kelce swiftly became a popular DraftKings betting market in 2023.
DraftKings was the 45th-most-searched brand by sponsorship executives in 2023, according to SponsorUnited. Fanatics was 99th. Take that No. 100 Continental.
The Carolina Hurricanes bought a restaurant near PNC Arena that will likely house a retail sportsbook, according to Charlotte Business Journal. The NHL team has a sports betting partnership with Fanatics.
By Brant James, Gaming Today Senior Writer