Down the Stretch They Come
Kentucky Derby Primer: Fierceness? Sierra Leone?; Betting the White Sox; Decent Caleb Williams Odds
If only there could be more than one first Saturday in May.
But then it wouldn’t feel so special, would it?
Thoroughbred horse racing and the pari-mutuel wagering industry that underpins it have been in decline for more than a half-century. That’s not news.
But while the mid-week crowd at Aqueduct might induce sadness, a week culminating in Oaks Day on Friday and Derby Day on Saturday inspires joy, the desire to wear dandy spring duds (and not worry about spilling bourbon all over them), and betting on horses even with absolutely no idea what those tiny stats mean in the program.
This is a different - ahem - animal, after all. It’s not Seahawks vs. Rams. It’s up to 20 very expensive, young genetic freaks with skittish temperaments clambering over 1 1/4 miles with a garland of roses and immortality awaiting at the finish.
And thousands of fans jumping up and down, screaming their names, hoping their bets come in. It’s a furious couple of minutes.
Gaming Today will have you ready. We’ve assembled a deep field of horse racing betting veterans with a wide range of learned opinions on the multitude of ways you can enjoy win money off the Kentucky Derby.
Bettors up!
From Alicia Hughes:
This year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) is already a historic one as it marks the 150th edition of the first leg of the American Triple Crown. With its highest purse ever at $5 million, the 2024 edition of the Run for the Roses will take place on May 4 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY, and is set to feature an intriguing field of 3-year-olds aiming to claim the most famous test in Thoroughbred racing.
Recent editions of the 1 1/4-miles classic have shown why bettors can not dismiss any contender in the field. The 2023 Kentucky Derby was won by Mage, who prevailed at odds of 15-1, while Rich Strike shocked the world in 2022 when he pulled the upset at 80-1.
AP Photo; Brant James illustration
Churchill Downs Wants to Be About More Than the Derby (But Definitely That, Too)
“When it comes to horse racing, it’s all about the Derby. That’s the opportunity to really reach deep into a broader customer base to recruit customers and interest them in horse racing. So I think as we approach 2024, we’ve already seen some of the activities of not just DraftKings and FanDuel, but others around horse racing and around the Derby. And we encourage that, and I think a real check-in point on the progress really will come after we get a chance to reflect on the results we see for this year’s Derby.”
Churchill Downs, Inc. CEO Bill Carstanjen
Drink It In
Mint Juleps are disgusting. We all do one once to say we did it, then move on.
Bourbon’s great. Don’t pour that other nonsense in there.
But if you’re tempted, try this recipe.
Timberwolves Fanatics, Indeed
From our friends - and subscribers! - at Fanatics:
“Since sweeping the Suns this past Sunday night, Minnesota leads all teams in NBA title tickets (35.5%) and handle (38.0%). … Since the start of the playoffs on Apr. 20, only the Nuggets (24.6%) have received more championship bets than the Timberwolves (19.3%).”
Finally, Some Reasonable QB1! Odds
Quarterback Caleb Williams, the first-overall pick in the NFL Draft to the Chicago Bears is listed at +200 to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award by DraftKings.
The Playbook loves the Kansas City Chiefs Xavier Worthy at +1600.
Fade Any Team That Allows A Shorty
This is more well-that-makes-sense verification than breaking news.
But we finally got receipts.
According to information provided by Sportradar, the official betting data rights partner of the NHL, since the 1933-34 season, teams have a .699 win percentage in games where they score a short-handed goal. They earn at least a point 71% percent of the time.
Say It Ain’t So, Kopech
Until their recent relatively incendiary stretch, the Chicago White Sox were one of the most reliable fade targets in sports after starting the season 3-22. Then they swept the Rays.
BUT! …
Through the first 25 games of the season at Caesars Sportsbook:
A $100 moneyline bet against the Pale Hose on every game would have made a $1,680 profit
A $10 moneyline bet against the Pale Hose on every game would have generated a $168 profit.
A moneyline $5 bet against the Pale Hose on every game would have yielded an $84.”
Perhaps Chicago will un-round back into form.
Ryan Garcia Probably Did A Dumb Thing
From Dan Holmes:
Ryan Garcia won a majority decision last weekend over Devin Haney in a World Boxing Council super lightweight title fight. He claims to have won even more, namely, the $10 million he bet on himself.
Typically, legal sportsbooks in the United States would not allow a participant to bet on their own sporting event. That means Garcia may have placed his alleged wager with an illegal sportsbook, perhaps operating offshore.
Odds …
… and enders
North Carolina State Representative Marcia Morey told WRAL_TV that she plans to introduce a bill banning single-player prop bets in the current legislative session. Tar Heels men’s basketball player Armando Bacot notably told reporters he was verbally abused by alleged sports bettors during the NCAA Tournament.
Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. 21+: All content herein is intended for audiences 21+.
By BRANT JAMES, Gaming Today Senior Writer