Bettor Than Ever
Chiefs-Bills playoffs rematch likely to set new NFL betting benchmark with Mahomes-Allen irresistible
Anyone who didn’t have a fiver on the Bills missing the playoffs had to be rooting for this. You’re a sports bettor, but you were a sports fan first.
And there’s enough history in Chiefs vs. Bills leading into the NFL Divisional Round this weekend to make this tantalizing, even before you consider all the alternate spreads and player prop bets that will be available to prove your genius.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen alone will almost certainly be enough to mint this game as historic.
“Given we have had [Tom] Brady-led Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay in the 2021 NFC Championship, Cincinnati vs. Kansas City in the 2022 AFC Championship, and some other classics in the last five years, the KC vs. Buffalo matchups are the heaviest bet games in that span.
“So it will be no surprise to see this year’s rendition take over the place of the 2021 AFC Championship Game and the 2022 AFC Divisional game and be the most-bet non-Super Bowl playoff game of all time.”
Bet365 trading team leader Aron Wattleworth
Wattleworth said that playoff games will always fall short of a Super Bowl handle. But by Sunday, he added, “this game is a very sweet spot for both coasts viewers, so it’s anticipated as we draw closer to game time, this will be the biggest handle game of the year so far.
“Anytime you have two top teams that have big fan bases, which both teams have, you will see bigger action. That goes without saying. But also having the caliber of players on both sides, that are mainstays for many fantasy team players as well as weekly player prop wagering.”
bet365 notes:
“Isiah Pacheco has become one of the more popular RBs that gets backed to do well in ‘rushing yard’ markets as well as ‘anytime TD’ on a weekly basis. He was one of the most popular ‘anytime TD’ plays last weekend, which continues into this weekend.”
“Stefon Diggs is one of the most popular-backed wide receivers in the league on a weekly basis for ‘receiving yards’ markets. And although not scoring the TDs as much, has been well backed for ‘anytime TD’ last weekend and going into this one.”
“ …In comparison to any of the other QBs in the league – Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are easily two of the most backed QBs week in, week out, given the obvious ‘passing yards’ markets. They also get backed weekly to do well in their ‘rush yards’ markets as two of the better scrambling, as well as by-design run QBs. Josh Allen is the most backed QB for ‘anytime TD’ in the league this season.”
“Action between these two QBs combined player prop markets is forecast to be the most action we will have seen in one game for both starting QBs.”
“Throw in the close line ( 2.5/with -150 +125 ML ) and a very middle-of-the-road ‘total,’ and this game has all the ingredients to be the most popular game of this current season, and likely the most heavily bet non-SB Playoff game we have ever seen.”
Nugget time:
Patrick Mahomes has never played a non-Super Bowl playoff game away from Arrowhead Stadium.
Run with that.
Along those lines, here’s an interesting chart from Sportico using TeamRankings data. It would appear playing at home means something again.
Yes, we know you’re still going to bet the Chiefs.
Josh Allen, AP; Brant James illustration
Meanwhile, Not in Buffalo …
From Dave Bontempo’s Divisional Round primer:
“All we kept hearing about was the [Dallas] home winning streak, how dominant they were defensively, and so forth. You can say now that a lot of people were drinking the Kool-Aid,” DraftKings’ Johnny Avello laughed, “but who really saw this coming?”
Very few, in retrospect. Avello said the result was one of the book’s top-performing games this entire season. The result torched spread bets, moneyline wagers, and multi-legged parlays anchored by the Cowboys.
“The question is now whether the Packers can do it again versus this great 49ers team,” Avello added. “I really don’t expect them to.”
Divisional Round Odds Clicks
Hint:
It’s the same story at DraftKings. Click below for an analysis of bet popularity across all major sports.
Let’s Have Some Scream Therapy …
… for Cowboys and Eagles bettors
Certainly, one or both cost you some money, either in futures bets or single-game wagers. Seriously, what the hell, NFC East?
I’m so looking forward to the podcast or documentary that explains what happened to Philadelphia after starting the season 10-1. The Eagles definitely didn’t want to be on the field in their Wild Card round loss in Tampa.
It’s like there was a really bad team meeting about two months ago and the team couldn’t recover.
Let’s double the venom.
Go.
Let’s Flog the Topic One Last Time
Recapping the Wild Wild Card Round
Some data from Tipico Sportsbook
“This Super Wild Card Weekend turned out well for Tipico. There were quite a few games that lacked a competitive feel to them, which turned out to be profitable for the book, as we saw a positive performance in 5 of the 6 games this weekend. Only the Steelers/Bills game saw the customers get their due as the Bills took care of business against the injury-ridden Steelers."
- Brian Gilmartin, Sportsbook Analyst, Tipico
Most profitable game of the weekend for bettors?
Steelers/Bills
Most profitable game of the weekend for Tipico?
Browns/Texans
Top 5 Anytime TD Scorer (By bet slip count)
Amon Ra St. Brown (didn’t score)
CeeDee Lamb (no)
Isiah Pacheco (yes)
Kyren Williams (no)
Tyreek Hill (yes)
What % of parlay bets on all six games (ML) hit for bettors?
0%
What % of bets in Ohio were placed on the Browns?
ML: 83% of bet slips were on the Browns
Spread: 81% of bet slips were on the Browns
Top 5 most popular player prop bets (by bet slip count)?
Anytime TD Scorer
Player X+ Receiving Yards
Player Receiving Yards O/U
Player X+ Pass Yards
Player X+ Rush Yards
Voided and Annoyed
The long-contentious topic of sportsbooks voiding bets over so-called “obvious errors” - or “palps,” using UK parlance - sizzled under a bright light this week after a Washington Post expose used the cancellation of winning hockey bets by Hard Rock Bet in Tennessee as the peg.
With sports betting legal and in some form of implementation in 40 US jurisdictions, the bane of sharp bettors is now a mainstream topic. And just as “free bet” became a taboo term under broader scrutiny, so will other types of business practices exploited by sportsbooks.
This is a big one.
Social media is chocked with screeds of angry bettors seeking answers or recompense for having winning bets canceled because they capitalized on errors made by sportsbooks.
That’s sort of the game, isn’t it? Inefficiencies in the market, et cetera.
It’s fair that gambling companies would seek relief from obvious errors, but do other businesses get such latitude? As noted in the Post article, they would not be in financial markets where many new sharp bettors develop.
With unregulated offshore websites anecdotally still absorbing upwards of 65% of American business, according to industry observers, legal American sportsbooks aren’t doing themselves any favors here. The rallying cry for these companies and the trade groups that promote them is that regulation engenders consumer protection.
A square deal, in essence.
Voiding bets, which former Huddle executive Ed Miller described as a “get out of jail free” card in the Post article, tears away at that premise and that trust.
Amazon Might Soon Deliver Your Favorite Team, Fodder for Bets
From Gaming Today’s Dan Holmes:
Consumers who turn to Amazon for almost everything (books, thermal underwear, nacho cheese) may soon be watching their favorite local teams on Prime Video.
Amazon has agreed to invest in sagging Diamond Sports Group (DSG), which operates the Bally Sports regional sports networks in 18 markets nationwide. As a result of the deal, Amazon Prime subscribers could watch their home team on that streaming platform.
The Amazon deal with DSG could alter how sports fans and bettors view the games that matter most to them.
Wanna Have a Catch, Pop?
Pitchers and catchers report in 26 days.
A flower just popped up through the snow in your front yard.
Celebrate with some MLB futures.
The Ohtani-powered Dodgers are the favorite by a wide margin despite a dubious postseason history in recent seasons.
In Case You Missed It:
Keeping your online casino wallets unhacked, with Jerad Finck
Odds …
Caesars Bonus Code for Jan. 10
… and Enders
By Brant James, Gaming Today Senior Writer
Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. 21+: All content herein is intended for audiences 21+.