Agents of Change
NFL Free Agency Shuffles Rosters, Power Balance, Betting Lines
Quarterbacks move odds.
That’s a fact when one gets hurt in Week 5.
That’s a fact in Week Minus-25 when free agent Kirk Cousins - coming off a season-ending Achilles tendon injury with the Minnesota Vikings - signs a four-year, $180-million contract with the Atlanta Falcons.
And it’s also a fact when woebegone Russell Wilson takes a league-minimum deal of $1.2 million - forwarding address for that $39 million to follow, Denver front office - trying to Russ-ucitate his legacy in Pittsburgh.
At Fanatics, Cousins quickly moved the Falcons’ Super Bowl odds from 40-1 to 30-1, and the Vikings’ from 50-1 to 65-1, Fanatics Betting and Gaming Editor & Sports Betting Analyst Max Meyer told The Gaming Today Playbook.
“But we pushed them even further to 75-1 despite the acquisitions of Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones,” Meyer said of the Vikings. “Cousins has been very underrated throughout his Vikings career. Darnold has the backup aura just because he was the former No. 3 pick, but we still feel that's a significant downgrade, hence the Vikings probably having the most notable shift in either direction so far.”
At ESPN BET, Cousins’ signing moved the Falcons’ odds of winning the NFC South to -110 from +120.
NFL bettors, particularly in Pennsylvania, view Wilson as equally impactful. From the beginning of the NFL free agency period on Monday through Wednesday, the Steelers led all other teams in terms of money wagered on their Super Bowl futures. That was good for 22.1% of the handle on that market.
“Originally, we did not move the Steelers’ Super Bowl odds,” Meyer explained. “They stayed at 80-to-1 when the Russell Wilson move was announced. But just given the recent surge of action, we lowered their odds slightly to 75-1.”
Derrick Henry signing with the Ravens was the biggest rumble of a less-seismic running back effect.
Upon announcing his move from Tennessee, Fanatics immediately moved the Ravens from +900 to +850 to win the Super Bowl, which is third-lowest behind the 49ers (+550) and Chiefs (+650).
“He's the best running back they've had in a while. Even though he is aging and has a big workload, just imagining him and Lamar Jackson is a scary thought for many defenses,” Meyer said. “The Packers, when it was announced that they were getting Josh Jacobs, their odds went from 22-1 to 20-1, and they've still stayed at 20-1 to one, even with the release of Aaron Jones, which I thought was interesting.”
Fanatics moved the Eagles from 19-1 to 17-1 after the signing of running back Saquon Barkley, and that number was bet down to 16-1 through Wednesday. The Eagles were the leader in tickets (17.9%) written by Fanatics through the same period.
That’s something. But it wouldn’t be as crucial as Jalen Hurts waking up with a sniff neck.
“It's the same with spreads,” Meyer said. “If a starting quarterback is ruled out, the spread's going to move by two-to-three points, if it's a quarterback of Cousins’ caliber, or even with a solid backup, versus a running back, a top-tier one like a Derrick Henry, it would be at most half a point.”
Meanwhile, at ESPN BET
Line movements triggered by NFL free agent deals since Monday:
Kirk Cousins to the Falcons
Atlanta odds, before and after:
To win NFC South moved from +120 to -110
To win NFC moved from +1800 to +1200
To win Super Bowl moved from +5000 to +3000
Russell Wilson signs with Pittsburgh
Steelers odds, before and after:
To win AFC North moved from +1200 to +1100
To win AFC moved from +5000 to +4000
To win Super Bowl (no movement, +7500)
Saquon Barkley signs with Philadelphia
Eagles odds, before and after:
To win NFC East moved from +140 to +135
To win Super Bowl moved from +1800 to +1600
Saquon Barkley Offensive Player of the Year opened at +5000 and [through Wednesday] at +3500
Additional player odds shifts:
Derrick Henry Offensive Player of the Year opened at +7500 and is currently +6000
Danielle Hunter Defensive Player of the Year opened at +7500 and is currently +5000
BREAKING: Bettors Will Bet on the NCAA Tournament
From the research team at marketing platform Optimove: the number of bettors for the men’s tournament beginning on March 21 could increase “by as much as” 87%.
Kentucky, North Carolina are Proving the Point
Residents of these basketball-bonkers states are about to get their first legal opportunity to wager on the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments. According to data provided by FanDuel, doing just that.
NCAAM: Kentucky (+2500) has the greatest share of bets (16%) and handle (23%) to win the tournament.
North Carolina (+2200) has surged to second-most bets (12%) and third-most handle (12%). UCONN (+480) is the favorite and has generated the third-most bets (9%) and second-most handle (13%).
NCAAW: Iowa and star Caitlin Clark are eliciting the greatest share of bets (31%) and handle (30%) to win the title.
South Carolina is heavily favored on FanDuel at -135, with LSU and Iowa sitting at +600.
Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. 21+: All content herein is intended for audiences 21+.
GamebetDC is Dead, Finally
Hopefully, you’ve never experienced the displeasure of not-arguably one of the worst sports betting apps in the history of the United States gambling industry.
Bad odds, lousy functionality, and ugly, troublesome withdrawals.
After four years of copious complaints and paltry revenue from this monstrosity, the DC Lottery finally opted to punt and hand FanDuel the same basic monopoly in the District. GamebetDC should fade into oblivion this spring.
Anecdotally, we know DC residents seeking a reasonable legal sports betting option take the Metro to Maryland or Virginia.
My experience with GamebetDC: Two years ago, I reported about the local sports betting ad blitz there, and in Maryland and Virginia. I found a sports bar with GamebetDC kiosks to soak in that uninspiring process, only to find that the one plugged in didn’t work.
So I then spent two hours on a laptop registering for an online account I really didn’t want. I made a small deposit and a few losing bets to check DC off my sports betting bingo card, and requested a withdrawal before I left town the next day.
It didn’t work. After a couple of rounds with customer “service,” I received an email stating that I couldn’t get my money back because my account had not been properly verified.
Then why, I asked, had I been allowed to bet? What if I was eight years old?
No further correspondence.
Hopefully, DC took what was left of my deposit and used it to plug a pothole on New York Avenue or buy some books for a middle school—finally, a useful outcome.
North Carolina Takes the Green Flag
Photo Credit: Courtesy NASCAR via Getty Images
Former Carolina Panthers tight end/broadcaster Greg Olsen (left) placed the ceremonial first bet on DraftKings’ online sportsbook on Monday to mark the launch of legal sports betting in North Carolina.
The wager, made at the NASCAR Hall of Fame: $100 on Bubba Wallace to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. That should help throttle up what NASCAR hopes is a bounty of bets in its ancestral homeland.
Business was brisk in North Carolina this week, according to GeoComply, the company tasked with making sure bettors are within legal wagering jurisdictions when wagering. GeoComply logged over 5.36 million checks on 370,000 accounts in the first two days.
Where’s your little blue pixel?
Photo: GeoComply
Odds …
… and enders
By BRANT JAMES, Gaming Today Senior Writer
Being a Falcons fan here in Ohio, I was fairly certain we were going to sign Cousins, to the point that I was able to get down a few very nice wagers on ATL to win the division, NFC and a few small plays on the SB as well, a week ago before he actually signed. Now fingers crossed Kirk lives up to all the hype, lol