UFC 264 Data & Expert Picks | John Deere Classic | Weekend Betting Promos
Betting picks by sports bettors for sports bettors
One of the biggest weekends of the year is upon us: Conor McGregor fight weekend. I have dug deep, deeper than anyone in the industry - I am not kidding. I have put together heaps of data so you can understand trilogy fights and make only the best bets.t.
Below you’ll find exclusive GamingToday data to help you make smart bets on the Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier fight this Saturday. Side note: check the promotions section for a risk-free bet opportunity on the McGregor-Poirier fight. It is for existing users too!
Lastly, I promised some MLB data this weekend but I’m pushing that back to next week because of UFC 264. I didn’t forget about you MLB fans. It will be a clean break at the All-Star game for RPM data as well as underdog data.
UFC Trilogy Fight Data
I went back to every trilogy fight in UFC, Pride, Strikeforce, WEC, ONE, and Bellator history. Below are some of the highlights--a GamingToday.com exclusive!
Underdogs Struggle In The Third Fight But Lightweight Shows A Glimmer Of Hope
Underdogs struggle in the third fight. This is immediately tough for Conor McGregor who is an underdog this Saturday. Overall, underdogs are 8-21 in the third fight (28%).
However, there have been 7 lightweight trilogies in MMA history. Of those 7 lightweight trilogy fights, 3 underdogs have won the third fight (42.8%).
Trilogy Fight: Finish Rates In The Lightweight Division
As I mentioned above, there are 7 lightweight trilogy fights. In those 7 fights, just two of them went to a decision.
The Conor Poirier fight is +325 to go to a decision on PointsBet. History doesn’t favor it; I would be surprised if this one gets to the scorecards. My expectation is an early finish for Conor or a late finish by Dustin. More on that in the picks section!
It is worth mentioning that Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic went to a decision in their last fight, although that was a Heavyweight bout. However, the familiarity that two fighters have with one another when they’ve had two fights already is typically a site for finishes.
UFC 264 Betting Picks
Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier Best Bets For The Main Event: Bet Poirier Live After Round 1 - Prefight Bet Fight to end in round 4 +1000 (FanDuel and PointsBet)
If Conor doesn’t get him out in round 1 (+475), he’s probably not going to win. The reality is, Conor’s most likely win condition is in the first round. Poirier is extremely tough to put away, even if Conor knocks him down in round 1 -- which I think he does -- I have a tough time believing that he actually puts him away.
I was going to bet Poirier in round 4 but that is just +1200. I can get either fighter at +1000. Poirier came on so strongly against Dan Hooker late in that fight, I am not sure Conor has the will to take the punishment that Hooker did.
UFC 264 Betting Pick: Sean O’Malley First Round KO +130 (DraftKings)
This is a tune-up fight if I have ever seen one. Kris Moutinho is making his UFC debut this weekend and is being fed to Sean O’Malley, yikes. I’ll take the plus money, O’Malley is a knockout machine and Moutinho has been knocked out twice already in his career.
UFC 264 Betting Pick: Carlos Condit +150 (BetMGM)
I am still shocked that we are getting this line. I don’t love any of the method of victory props because I actually think Condit could get a TKO win (+800 if you’re feeling bold). Max Griffin would be the worst fighter that Condit has ever lost to. Griffin has lost 4 of 7. Tell me why he’s favored again?
Sportsbook Promotions: Sportsbooks Taking Your UFC Bets Risk-Free
Every week, I scour the sports betting realm for the best promotions for (mostly) existing users. Being that most people that read this newsletter are existing users, I vow to find the best of the best, whether it is a referral promotion, booster odds, or risk-free bet opportunity.
PointsBet Sportsbook: UFC betting risk-free! Looking to take a shot on a round 4 finish? PointsBet will take that bet risk-free up to $25. Opt-in is required but this is awesome. It must be placed on the main event, but let’s go it’s a risk-free bet!
FanDuel Sportsbook is also giving a risk-free bet on UFC 264 but only up to $10. Surprised to see FanDuel offer less than PointsBet but risk-free is still worth it. Even better, this can be a parlay if you want. Opt-in is required and there is a max refund of $10.
BetMGM Sportsbook: Bet $20 to win $100 if McGregor lands a punch. The $100 is paid out in free bets if McGregor lands a punch in Saturday’s fight.
Editor’s Choice: Everything You Need To Know About CryptoPunk
DraftKings board member Shalom McKenzie recently bought a CryptoPunk for an otherworldly $11.8 million. Why would anyone dish that kind of money for something like that?
Well, GamingToday’s Chris Gerlacher dropped an excellent article this week breaking down exactly what a CryptoPunk and why it can be equal parts risky and rewarding.
Bowman: John Deere Classic Golf Odds And Betting Picks
Looking for more stuff to bet on this weekend? Bill Bowman has you covered with your golf fix. This is the last week for golfers to qualify for next week’s Open Championship. This is the chance of a lifetime. If you come in the top 5 this weekend you qualify for the Open Championship.
Check out Bowman’s entire betting breakdown for the John Deere Classic!
Congress Introduces Bill To Back Tribal Communities In New Bill
Floridians are practically begging for sports betting.. Seemingly every week a new road block is introduced. This week, two congressional legislators introduced bill H.R. 4308, which could further delay a Florida sports betting launch.
For more, check out Mary M. Shaffrey’s story!
As always…. “Bet with your head, not over it…” - Furio Giunta
~ Erich Richter, Gaming Today Sports Betting Expert
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