Super Bowl 56 + UFC 271 = 1 Fantastic Sports Betting Weekend
Sports betting news and picks for bettors by bettors
With the Super Bowl mixed in with a UFC Pay-Per-View card, all is right in the world. Well, almost.
In last week’s newsletter, I staggered a 2.6-unit play that was a loser when the fight ended in the first round. Naturally, that’s what happened. The process was fine. Only 23 strikes thrown between the two fighters in over four minutes of fighting, a very low volume. Not everything works out, but the handicapping was right on and the closing-line value was excellent (bet at +230, ended at +188).
There is more UFC coming at the bottom of today’s issue of the Gaming Today Playbook.
For the Super Bowl, most of the money is coming on the Cincinnati Bengals. The game itself isn’t my favorite to bet outright. I have a small lean on the Bengals with value on their current moneyline price (+170 at DraftKings). However, I am focusing on props, including a get for this game to go to overtime. More on that later.
Lastly, my interview with Prophet Exchange founders Dean Sisun and Jake Benzaquen was published today. The link to that is also below.
There is a lot to bet on this weekend. As always, bet responsibly.
Prophet Exchange Founders On Their Upcoming Launch, Player Prop Options, and Futures Betting On An Exchange Platform
As a fellow New Jersian, I’ve been looking forward to this interview with two young and excited minds from Hoboken. These two are prepared to launch one of the first sports betting exchanges in the United States.
Prophet Exchange will soon be off and running. This is a huge development for pro bettors who do not like paying vig or have to deal with limits from sportsbooks.
Imagine a world where every bet is +100/-100 or +200/-200. Sounds good, right? Well, below is my interview with Sisun and Benzaquen about their vision for this world, including future offerings, state launches, and much more.
Read: Interview w/ Dean Sisun and Jake Benzaquen of Prophet Exchange
Super Bowl 56 Prop Bets
Sony Michel Over 4.5 Rush Attempts -135 (DraftKings)
Sony Michel is firmly the backup running back for the Rams. He is also the better pass protector than Cam Akers. He had 11 carries in the NFC Championship Game, and I have no idea why his number is just 4.5 for this game. Projected by me at 7.5.
Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Rush Attempts -105 (BetMGM)
Stafford has hit the ‘over ‘on this prop in all three Rams playoff games, rushing six, four, and five times against the Cardinals, Bucs, and 49ers, respectively. In a game the Rams are projected to win, we have to expect at least one or two kneel downs (which count as attempts), as well as his usual willingness to scramble for first downs.
3-Way Moneyline: Tie +1500 (PointsBet)
Most sportsbooks have this prop at +900. It’s a bet for this game to go to overtime (tied after four quarters)! Both teams tend to play in close games, these kickers have ice in their veins, and the quarterbacks can lead last-minute drives. Free football anyone? +1500 is much too high for this prop.
Read: My Favorite Anytime TD Scorer Props For Super Bowl LVI
Sportsbook Promotions, February 10: Super Bowl Boosters and Plenty More
Each week, I search the sports betting market for promotions. Sometimes they are awesome, other times not so much. Rest assured, you will not miss another “no-brainer bet” again.
There are so many promotions for Super Bowl week that I can’t possibly fit them all in this newsletter. Make sure you go to your apps for more of them. I broke down the best ones for this weekend below…
DraftKings Sportsbook: DraftKings has too many to count. There are at least five worth exploring. For now, opt-in to Joe Burrow over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns boosted from -170 to +100 with a max bet of $50. There are plenty more there, too.
FanDuel Sportsbook: $25 UFC Parlay Insurance. If exactly one leg loses, you will be refunded the bet up to $25 in site credit. Good luck! Opt-in required.
FanDuel Sportsbook: Super Bowl 56 Risk-Free Same Game Parlay up to $10. Must be at least three legs. Make sure to opt-in at the promos page.
PointsBet Sportsbook: Bet $20 pregame on Bengals vs. Rams and get a $20 free bet, usable for in-game bets only. PointsBet has expanded its live betting offerings, so jump on this for a chance to win all kinds of markets, including TD scorer props and LIVE same game parlays! Opt-in required.
BetMGM Sportsbook: Place a single “One Game Parlay” of at least $10 and get a $30 free bet to use on Super Bowl 56! Win or lose, getting a free bet worth 3x your wager? Sign me up. Opt-in to the promotion at the promos page.
UFC 271 Parlay And Betting Picks
I broke down the three most interesting fights at the link you see below. I also have some time props again (bet carefully). For the main event, I don’t have a strong lean. I do have some longshot props on the fight to end in the 4th and 5th round (below).
UFC 271 Parlay +235: Kyler Phillips -425 + Andrei Arlovski -145 + Jared Cannonier -165
Tuivasa/Lewis Time Props
Total bets here equal 1.38 units. If the fight ends in Round 1, we lose them all. If Tuivasa were to win a decision, we hit big and win 3.24 units. Good luck!
Fight Starts Round 2 +105 (PointsBet) .75u (to win .78u)
Fight Starts Round 3 +240 (DraftKings) .33u (to win .8u)
Fight Goes the Distance +380 .2u (to win .76)
Tuivasa Wins by decision +900 .1u (to win .9u)
Whittaker Wins by Submission +2000 (DraftKings)
This is a longshot of all longshots. The most likely method of victory for Robert Whittaker in the main event is shooting takedowns to make Israel Adesanya tired. If this happens, it will likely be a decision win for Whittaker.
However, former MMA fighter and amazing YouTube follow Dan Hardy lays out that Whittaker’s best path to win is spamming head and arm triangles. If he follows that strategy, a late submission is very much in the cards here.
So, I’ll also be making mega small bets on Whittaker to win by submission in Round 4 (+6600) and to win by submission Round 5 (+8000).
Read: UFC 271 Picks, Props, And Analysis
As always…. “Bet with your head, not over it…” -- Furio Giunta
~ Erich Richter, GamingToday Sports Betting Expert
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