Oh, How Sweet (16) It Is!
Sports betting information for bettors by bettors ...
The wait is over! The NCAA Tournament gets back underway today with the first half of the Sweet 16, starting with No. 4 Arkansas taking on No. 1 Gonzaga in the West Region. We've been hard at work creating content to help make this round of March Madness action especially sweet for you.
After the craziness of the first two rounds, I can't help but wonder what the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight will bring us this weekend.
Some of the top teams were knocked out in the first two rounds (Kentucky, Baylor, Auburn), and futures odds have been reset heading into the Sweet 16.
For Thursday night’s player props, Craig Williams has you covered, looking at the star power on the slate.
Most Outstanding Player Odds
This market reminds me of Super Bowl MVP betting, where Cooper Kupp was +2200 prior to Wild Card Weekend. Yes, most of the guys listed on the NCAA Tournament MOP oddsboards will not even play in the championship game, but if you wait, the odds for the players left after this weekend will only be shorter.
Our Cyrus Eshaghoff offered some insight on the market in his article, 2022 NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player Odds: Favorites, Sleepers, Longshots.
It’s possible, but highly unlikely, the MOP is not from the championship team. Since 1939, there have been 12 MOPs who did not play for the tournament winner. The last was Akeem Olajuwon in 1983.
When Will The Music Stop For Cinderella?
Whether you are just a fan looking for a good game or a better looking for an underdog to back, everyone loves a good Cinderella story come March Madness. Does it get much better than this year's candidate, the No. 15 seed Saint Peter's Peacocks? I don't think so.
Double-digit underdogs to Kentucky in the first round with a +1600 moneyline, Saint Mary’s became just the eighth No. 15 seed to advance past the first round. When the Peacocks beat Murray State in the second round, they became the third No. 15 seed to make it to the Sweet 16.
Here's the answer to your next question: No, a No. 15 seed has never made it past the Sweet 16.
I wrote about the possibility of the Peacocks dancing into the Elite Eight and beyond in an article earlier in the week.
Which Sportsbook Has The Fairest March Madness Futures?
While the sportsbook you make your futures wager with should depend on which one offers the best price for your bet, Chris Gerlacher crunched some numbers to determine the books with the lowest “theoretical hold” on March Madness futures. That’s industry speak for which book returns the largest percentage of money bet to their customers. Check out his analysis of nine different sportsbooks’ March Madness futures odds here.
These Props Are Oh So Sweet
For all you prop bet lovers, there are a few plus-money bets that I love:
NCAA Tournament: Largest Final Four Seed: Under 7.5 +115 (DraftKings)
Example: If No. 8 seed makes Final Four, 'over' pays; a No.1 seed pays the ‘under’
Five teams are heading into the Sweet 16 seeded No. 8 and above: No. 11 Michigan, No. 15 Saint Peter's, No. 8 North Carolina, No. 11 Iowa State, and No. 10 Miami. Of those five, only one is a lock to make the Elite Eight (either Iowa State or Miami).
The Tar Heels have a tough road to the Final Four (vs. UCLA and then likely Purdue). Either Kansas or Providence will take care of the Miami vs. Iowa State winner, and Saint Peter's is a 12.5-point dog against the Boilermakers and would be a sizable underdog again should it pull that upset.
Team To Advance Further, Duke or North Carolina: Same Round +145 (FanDuel)
Team prices: Duke +135, North Carolina +230
Neither Duke nor North Carolina is a heavy underdog heading into their respective Sweet 16 matchup, but both will face suffocating defenses. The 'same round' play cashes at +145 if both get knocked out in this round. It also affords some leeway if both advance at the same pace.
You can read about a few others right here.
This Week On The Sports Betting Legal Landscape
The Bluegrass State took a big step towards legalizing sports betting when the Kentucky House of Reps passed House Bill 606. The bill would allow online and in-person sports betting tied to horse tracks. It still has to pass through the Senate, but as Gaming Today's Rebecca Henchet points out, the vote signals the first time any Kentucky sports betting bill has moved beyond the state House or Senate.
Kentucky is not the only state making progress these days. Lawmakers in Kansas have gotten closer than they ever have to passing legislation. The Kansas House had a hearing on Tuesday discussing House Bill 2740. The debate on the bill will continue on Monday.
More on the legalization front: Missouri | Kansas.
Sportsbook Promotions, March 24
Many sportsbooks are still running some of the same March Madness promotions I mentioned in last week's newsletter. The following are new promos:
DraftKings:Get two 25% Profit Boosts on any Women's College Basketball Tournament Game bets this week.
FanDuel: Place a 3+ Leg Parlay on 2022 Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament games from 3/24-3/27 and if exactly one leg loses, get a refund in site credit (max $25 per day).
Caesars: Bet $50+ on the WGC Match Play (min. odds of -150) and receive a $25 free bet to use on college basketball.
BetMGM: Get a free subscription to The Athletic when you wager on college basketball.
NFL Odds Shakeups
NFL markets are always a ton of fun, of course. With the plethora of high-profile moves we've seen this offseason, the odds have been on the move for several teams. Trading away a superstar (or acquiring one) will do that.
Check out the impact of the latest blockbuster move, the Chiefs trading Tyreek Hill to Miami.
Coming Up On The Sports Betting Calendar...
April 1 is a week from today. We'll probably hear about LeBron James getting dealt in an historic cross-sport trade with the Lakers sending him to the Cleveland Browns for Baker Mayfield.
Along with the men’s Final Four (April 2) and National Championship game (April 4), these sports betting nuggets are on our calendar:
The NIT semifinals are scheduled for March 29, with the championship game March 31.
The Women's Elite Eight takes place March 27-28, the Final Four on April 1, and the National Championship game April 3.
Opening Day for the MLB season is April 7.
It will be a busy month for golf, higlighted by The Masters in two weeks.
The USFL gets underway April 16
The NBA Playoffs tip off on April 16.
That does it for this edition of the Gaming Today Playbook. If there is anything you would like to hear more about, shoot me a message via email at travis.pulver@catenamedia.com or hit me up on Twitter @FatManWriting. I want to provide you with the content you want to see, so don't hesitate to reach out.
I may not be able to show you the money, but I can certainly be your ambassador of Qwan.
Until next time…
Travis Pulver, Gaming Today Sports Betting Writer