MLB Data | Olympics Promos | Open Championship
Betting picks by sports bettors for sports bettors
Conor McGregor fight weekend — broke — my heart and other bodily structures across the country (sigh, pun intended).
There was a lot to like about UFC 264 and even more to dislike. I was ready to pounce on a Dustin Poirier bet prior to round 2 but Conor’s leg snapped in the ending seconds of round 1. Unfortunately, the live betting opportunity was a miss and left us all wondering what could’ve been.
Changing gears, this week we have the Open Championship in the golf world. We are finishing up the NBA playoffs, and soon it’ll be the NFL’s time to shine.
Lastly, this is the week I’ll be talking about MLB data that should really help you make bets. Let’s jump into RPMs, hard-hit percentages, and who has been profitable up until this point! Halfway mark has passed, let’s get some moneymakers in there!
GamingToday Data And Analytics: MLB Betting Data
This comes with an assist from MLB.com. I was able to use some helpful data from them to play with the data and to show how scoring is down in baseball this season.
Note: I skipped 2020 because the season did not start until July.
MLB Scoring Is Down, But Over Data Is Up - And Profitable
Everyone is talking about stick stuff in baseball. Everyone knows that scoring is down and the hard-hit percentage is struggling. But here is where everything really matters. How often do your bets win vs. lose?
If you bet blindly on every MLB Over, you would be slightly profitable:
1,310-1,284-91
48.87% over
47.82% under
3.3% push
Sticky tack has hurt a lot of pitchers. As you can see, scoring is up in June of 2021, not quite to 2019 levels, but still up on the year.
2021
April 2021: 3,249
May 2021: 3,672
June 2021: 3,712
2019
April 2019: 3,550
May 2019: 3,841
June 2019: 4,129
As a betting man, over-betting seems like it will be a profitable endeavor in the near term. Scoring is trending upwards and sportsbooks are still expecting smaller scoring totals. The lack of stick tack has a lot to do with that too.
Per Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, Four-Seam Fastballs with a spin ro 2500+ RPM dropped 69% in the MLB’s first week of stick stuff enforcement. They have yet to update that report for more data. However, that is a stark difference and will make a huge impact on scoring going forward.
All of this is to say, bet the overs during the second half!
Sportsbook Promotions: FanDuel Brings The Olympic Heat!
Every week, I scour the sports betting realm for the best promotions for (mostly) existing users. Being that most people that read this newsletter are existing users, I vow to find the best of the best, whether it is a referral promotion, booster odds, or risk-free bet opportunity.
FanDuel Sportsbook bet on the Olympics! If you place $100 total in wagers on the Olympics, you are rewarded with a $1 bonus in site credit for each gold medal the USA wins. Very solid stuff from FanDuel, be sure to opt-in.
BetMGM Sportsbook this a usual promotion but an important one. Bettors who place $50 in wagers get a $10 free bet per week. No other sportsbook offers something like this, so take a look and be sure to opt-in!
Bill Bowman Gives His PGA Open Championship Betting Advice
Bowman is a heavy-hitting golf expert who helps bridge the gap between odds and value. He gives weekly betting picks on GamingToday.com for golf,
The Open Championship is one of those weeks that brings out the serious players in sports betting. Let’s take a look at a few betting spots from our golf expert!
Bryson DeChambeau to miss the cut +225
New caddie, Brooks Koepka beef, just missed the cut. Plus money shot on a bet like this seems like a solid opportunity.
There are plenty more picks where that came from! Below is where you can find more value betting picks!
Bowman’s entire betting breakdown for one of the biggest tournaments of the golf season.
Editor’s Choice: Oakland A’s To Move To Las Vegas?
The A’s have struggled with attendance and success for quite some time. The movie Moneyball showcased the money troubles that they have been through for many years. Now, the A’s need a new ballpark and no real way to pay for one.
As always…. “Bet with your head, not over it…” - Furio Giunta
~ Erich Richter, Gaming Today Sports Betting Expert
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