Breaking Down NFL Divisional Round, UFC 270, NBA MVP
Sports betting picks and news for bettors by bettors.
Good afternoon from the Gaming Today Playbook!
Remember when I said that last weekend, the Wild Card Round, was my favorite of the NFL season? Well, it is. However, this weekend isn’t far behind, and the Divisional Round features the two best teams in the NFL – the Bills and Chiefs – pitted against each other. Whoever wins that 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday game should be the Super Bowl favorite, no matter who else wins this weekend.
Also in today’s newsletter, we have a “no-brainer” offer for New York bettors, and we break down UFC 270, topped by the best heavyweight championship bout in UFC history.
Divisional Round Player Props & Parlays | UFC Plays
I will have individual player prop breakdowns for each NFC game on GamingToday.com, so be sure to check those out. The AFC will be covered by Gaming Today’s Craig Williams. Check us out if you want some player prop winners! Those should be out Friday.
Patrick Mahomes Anytime TD Scorer +460 (BetRivers) + Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-114) = +700
Mahomes runs when he has to. In the 2019 playoffs, he scored in two out of three playoff games. In 2020, he scored in one out of three games. Add that up and you get three out of six playoff games he’s rushed for a touchdown.
Am I saying this prop should be +100? No. But +460 is too high.
D’Onta Foreman Anytime TD Scorer +200 (DraftKings)
The Titans are playing coy with Derrick Henry, who is -200 or longer at most sportsbooks to score a touchdown. Foreman has looked excellent, and the Bengals defense is banged up. The Titans would be wise to keep Henry fresh and not rush him back if they don’t truly need him.
NFC Sneak Preview: AJ Dillon Over 41.5 Rushing Yards -115 (DraftKings) | Over 10.5 Rush Attempts +100
This line might not stay where it is, so let's get on it sooner rather than later. AJ Dillon has out-carried Aaron Jones in each of the last two Packers games and has 63 yards rushing in each of them. I believe in Dillon as the featured ball carrier.
UFC 270 Best Bets | Decisions Everywhere?
I go deeper into UFC 270 in the piece linked below, where I break down six of my best bets on the card. Overall, it isn’t the best card we have seen, but the two title fights are phenomenal. Those two fights alone are worth the price of admission.
Figueiredo by decision +500 (FanDuel) | Fight Goes The Distance +120
I break this down in-depth in the article below. Figueiredo has a new coach, a former gold medal wrestler. Expecting a wrestling-heavy gameplan from Deiveson “God of War” Figueiredo.
Cody Stamann Wins By Decision +260 (PointsBet)
Cody Stamann has only wins by decision in the UFC. In fact, eight of his nine UFC fights have ended on the scorecards, five in victory. The value of Cody is excellent, even though betting against a Nurmagomedov has rarely been profitable.
Read: UFC 270 breakdown and all of my betting picks for this weekend
Sports Betting Business: South Dakota, Hawaii Could Be Next
Sportsbooks are fighting tooth-and-nail for customers in the Empire State, but more states are in the legalization pipeline.
South Dakota appears headed to a vote on Nov. 8 that could legalize mobile sports betting. In Hawaii, there’s a proposal for a “pilot program” for retail and mobile sports betting.
In an email to Gaming Today, Chris Toshiro Todd said his bill “is intentionally broad to give flexibility to the state to define what ‘digital sports betting on a platform’ can mean in practice. This bill would certainly apply to app-based gaming, but could potentially apply to a brick and mortar location under certain circumstances.”
Gaming Today’s Rebecca Hanchett has more:
Sportsbook Promotions 1/20: FanDuel Giving New York Users Free Money | DraftKings’ Free-To-Play UFC 10K | PointsBet Bet $20 Get $20
Each week, I search the sports betting market for promotions. Sometimes they are awesome, other times not so much. Rest assured, you will not miss another “no-brainer bet” again.
DraftKings Sportsbook: This is available to all users. DraftKings is allowing its user to participate in the DraftKings free-to-play tournament. The total prize pool is $10,000, and the entry is free! This is a daily fantasy contest, and no real money wagering is required.
FanDuel Sportsbook NY: Maximum Wager $50. Bet on the Knicks to cover a +199.5-point spread at -110. Currently, the spread is 199.5, but the more people who bet on it, the farther the spread goes. This is only for New York bettors, and it is on the homepage for tonight’s Knicks vs. Pelicans game.
PointsBet Sportsbook: Bet $20 pregame on Buccaneers vs. Rams and get a $20 free bet, usable for in-game bets only. PointsBet has expanded its live betting offerings, so jump on this, and you can win all kinds of ways ,including TD scorer props! Opt-in required.
NBA Futures: Dissecting The Crowded MVP Market
Kevin Durant is out for 4-6 weeks due to an MCL injury, which is a semi sigh of relief for Brooklyn after the scary-looking incident. The Nets were holding their breath, fearing the worst.
From a betting perspective, one result was upheaval of the MVP odds market.
Current NBA MVP Odds (DraftKings)
Stephen Curry +170
Giannis Antetokounmpo +300
Nikola Jokic +600
Joel Embiid +800
Ja Morant +1000
Kevin Durant +2200
DeMar DeRozan +3000
Gaming Today’s Tony Mejia breaks down the best value plays for NBA MVP.
As always…. “Bet with your head, not over it…” -- Furio Giunta
~ Erich Richter, GamingToday Sports Betting Expert
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