And With The First Pick Of The 2022 NFL Draft, The Jacksonville Jaguars Select…
We'll find out the answer to the question posed in the subject line of this email tonight. The odds had favored Aiden Hutchinson for the last couple of months, but over the weekend, the market shifted toward Travon Walker, and the odds have continued to move in his direction since.
However, Peter King has reported the Jaguars could do something unexpected. Does that mean Ahmad Gardner could go No. 1 (+10,000 at BetMGM)? Or maybe Charles Cross (also +10,000)?
While the NFL Draft captivates the minds of sports fans this week, it is not the only game in town for sports bettors. There are also the NBA Playoffs, Stanley Cup Playoffs, the USFL, MLB, golf, and more.
Let's talk about a few of them…
NFL Draft Odds: There's More Than Just Who Goes No. 1
NFL teams will be gambling on which former college football players can turn into NFL stars, and we can bet on who we think they will take. It's a topic we have covered extensively here at GamingToday.
Much of the betting action involves the first round. You can also find markets for the first 20 picks of the draft, the first player selected at almost every position group (Jameson Williams, first wide receiver?), and so much more.
You can even bet on the last pick of the draft, Mr. Irrelevant.
Go to our website, GamingToday.com, and search for 'NFL Draft.' You will find several articles with insight from our writers. It never hurts to hear someone else's opinion.
NFL Draft: PointsBet's Name-A-Bet
I like several things about PointsBet, but the name-a-bet feature might be my favorite. You can find some intriguing markets there, and if you think you have a new one to offer, if the bookmakers like it, they'll give it odds and post it on the app.
I love this draft-related one they have right now:
Derek Stingley Jr. Top 5, Jordan Davis Top 10, and Jameson Williams Top 10 +1600
Rumor has it the Texans are seriously thinking about Stingley Jr. at No. 3. There has been a lot of talk about Williams potentially being the first receiver off the board (+200, PointsBet) and going in the top 10 (-125, DraftKings).
Jordan Davis is the group's outlier. While his odds to go top 10 are +350 at DraftKings, $10 wins you $160 if this parlay hits.
NBA Playoffs: Ready For The Next Round?
The first round of the NBA Playoffs is not quite over, but three series could end tonight, Memphis can close out Minnesota on Friday, and the Bucks vs. Celtics Eastern Conference Semifinals tips off Sunday.
In addition to Boston and Milwaukee, the Heat and Warriors have locked up spots in the second round as well.
Injuries and dominant play have caused the odds to shift and a new NBA Finals favorite to emerge. But the Suns could regain 'favorite' status once Devin Booker returns. As of Thursday afternoon, he is listed as ‘out’ for tonight’s Game 6 against the Pelicans, but he is getting closer to coming back.
We’ve been offering daily player props analysis during the NBA Playoffs. Check out Cyrus Eshagoff’s post on Thursday’s games, where fading James Harden is among his recommendations.
But my favorite market at this time of year is NBA Finals MVP. You do risk putting money down on a player who may not make the Finals, but the odds will never be higher for the superstars (and most likely candidates) of the teams favored to win it all.
Devin Booker is up to +750 at DraftKings, and Giannis is up to +800; I'm just saying....
Elsewhere In The World Of Sports Betting....
With everything going on in the Wide World of Sports, I could easily turn this newsletter into a novella, but I'm not going to do that to my readers. But I would not be doing the sports betting world justice if I didn't at least touch on some of the other great content our writers have produced over the last week:
The USFL season rolls on this with the league and moves into Week 3. Some contenders appear to be emerging (i.e., New Orleans, Birmingham). But these teams are still evolving. So, while it is easy to count out the Panthers and Maulers, that may not be wise (my faves are still the Generals, Stars, and Bandits).
I do not know the UFC well enough to bet on it, but I know enough to know Mariah Janos wrote a solid preview of UFC Vegas 53 this week.
The field for the 2022 Kentucky Derby is not official yet. But there has been enough betting on the favorite, Epicenter, for his odds to move from +490 to +395 at Circa.
The PGA Championship is still a few weeks away, but there has been some drama surrounding some high-profile names aiming to tee it up.
This Week On The Sports Betting Legal Landscape…
This week, Minnesota took a step in the right direction when the House Ways & Means Committee passed a bill to legalize mobile and retail sports betting in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. The bill now goes before the full House for consideration.
Here’s Mary Shaffrey's story on the Minnesota bill, which leaves out the state’s horse race tracks.
Elsewhere on the legal landscape, Massachusetts, Missouri, and Kansas are at various stages in terms of passing sports betting laws. Be sure to check Gaming Today regularly for our coverage.
If Senate Bill 290 gets passed, it sounds like sports bettors in Louisiana will enjoy the betting experience even more.
Sportsbook Promotions: April 28, 2022.
The following are some of my favorite promotions at sportsbooks this week. Some of these will expire by tonight or tomorrow, so you might want to jump on them while you can.
FanDuel: Baseball Parlay and Get. Place a 4+ Leg Parlay on 4/28 and/or 4/29 MLB Games and get a bonus in free bets equal to the size of your wager (max $20), win or lose.
FanDuel: UFC Parlay Insurance. Place a 4+ Leg Parlay on UFC Fight Night, and if exactly one leg loses, get a refund in free bets (max $25).
DraftKings: Ross Tucker's 1st Round Offensive Line NFL Draft Boost! Get an odds boost with for Over 7.5 Offensive Lineman drafted in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft, boosted to +200!
BetMGM: Stanley Cup Playoffs. Place a $10 or more futures bet on a team to win the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals. Every time the team you bet on advances to the next round of the playoffs, you'll receive a Risk-Free Token in your account.
Coming Up On Our Sports Betting Calendar
These are some of the events we'll be covering in the near future:
The NHL postseason begins on May 2, which means sportsbooks will soon be posting series props and updated Stanley Cup odds.
The Kentucky Derby field becomes official on May 2. The Run for the Roses is set for May 7.
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje (May 7).
PGA Championship (May 19-22).
NBA Playoffs: Conference semifinals get underway next week.
Beginners Beat: What Is An Odds-On Favorite?
It sounds like such a simple term to define, but a search on the internet comes up with different answers. According to some, an odds-on favorite is whoever is favored to win. But others define it as someone with a better than 50 percent chance of winning.
The best take I found came from my editor (and matched up with the definition most sports betting glossaries had):
“Odds-on" means less than even-money (which translates to, yes, better than a 50% chance), but the term has been misused to the point it's interchangeable with "favorite" in most people's minds. I prefer not to use it unless the favorite is -101 or higher.
FYI, -101 odds translate into a 50.25 percent chance.
That brings us to the end of this edition of the Gaming Today Playbook. I hope you enjoyed reading it and found it informative. If you have any questions or want to request a topic to get covered in a future newsletter, you can reach me via email at travis.pulver@catenamedia.com or via Twitter at @FatManWriting.
I'll leave you with some wise words Jennifer Garner's character told Kevin Costner in the movie Draft Day:
"There's no such thing as a sure thing. At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is what you think."
Till Next Time,
Travis Pulver, Sports Betting Writer